Spatial-temporal distribution of preterm birth in China, 1990-2020: A systematic review and modelling analysis.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the long-term trends of preterm birth rates in China and their geographic variation by province. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the annual spatial-temporal distribution of preterm birth rates in China by province from 1990 to 2020. DATA SOURCES: We searched PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, CNKI, WANFANG and VIP from January 1990 to September 2023. STUDY SELECTION AND DATA EXTRACTION: Studies that provided data on preterm births in China after 1990 were included. Data were extracted following the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting. SYNTHESIS: We assessed the quality of each survey using a 9-point checklist. We estimated the annual preterm birth risk by province using Bayesian multilevel logistic regression models considering potential socioeconomic, environmental, and sanitary predictors. RESULTS: Based on 634 survey data from 343 included studies, we found a gradual increase in the preterm birth risk in most provinces in China since 1990, with an average annual increase of 0.7% nationally. However, the preterm birth rates in Inner Mongolia, Hubei, and Fujian Province showed a decline, while those in Sichuan were quite stable since 1990. In 2020, the estimates of preterm birth rates ranged from 2.9% (95% Bayesian credible interval [BCI] 2.1, 3.8) in Inner Mongolia to 8.5% (95% BCI 6.6, 10.9) in Jiangxi, with the national estimate of 5.9% (95% BCI 4.3, 8.1). Specifically, some provinces were identified as high-risk provinces for either consistently high preterm birth rates (e.g. Jiangxi) or relatively large increases (e.g. Shanxi) since 1990. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides annual information on the preterm birth risk in China since 1990 and identifies high-risk provinces to assist in targeted control and intervention for this health issue.

Effects of family multi-generational relationship on multimorbidity and healthy life expectancy for second generations: insight from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study.

OBJECTIVE: In the context of aging, Chinese families consisting of more than three generations (grandparents, parents, children) are the norm. The second generation (parents) and other family members may establish a downward (contact only with children) or two-way multi-generational relationship (contact with children and grandparents). These multi-generational relationships may have the potential effect on multimorbidity burden and healthy life expectancy in the second generation, but less is known about the direction and intensity of this effect. This study aims to explore this potential effect. METHODS: We obtained longitudinal data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study from 2011 to 2018, which included 6,768 people. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess the association between multi-generational relationships and the number of multimorbidity. The Markov multi-state transition model was used to analyze the relationship between multi-generational relationships and the severity of multimorbidity. The multistate life table was used to calculate healthy life expectancy for different multi-generational relationships. RESULTS: The risk of multimorbidity in two-way multi-generational relationship was 0.830 (95% CIs: 0.715, 0.963) times higher than that in downward multi-generational relationship. For mild multimorbidity burden, downward and two-way multi-generational relationship may prevent aggravation of burden. For severe multimorbidity burden, two-way multi-generational relationship may aggravate the burden. Compared with two-way multi-generational relationship, the second generations with downward multi-generational relationship has a higher healthy life expectancy at all ages. CONCLUSION: In Chinese families with more than three generations, the second generations with severe multimorbidity burden may aggravate the condition by providing support to elderly grandparents, and the support provided by offspring to the second generations plays a vital positive role in improving the quality of life and narrowing the gap between healthy life expectancy and life expectancy.

Potential Gains in Health-Adjusted Life Expectancy by Reducing Burden of Noncommunicable Diseases in 188 Countries: A Population-Based Study.

OBJECTIVES: This article quantifies the potential gains in health-adjusted life expectancy for people aged 30 to 70 years (HALE[30-70]) by examining the reductions in disability in addition to premature mortality from noncommunicable diseases (NCDs). METHODS: We extracted data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 for 4 major NCDs (cancers, cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases, and diabetes mellitus) in 188 countries from 2010 to 2019. Estimates of the potential gains in HALE[30-70] were based on a counterfactual analysis involving 3 alternative future scenarios: (1) achieve Sustainable Development Goals target 3.4 but do not make any progress on disability reduction, (2) achieve Sustainable Development Goals target 3.4 and eliminate NCD-related disability, and (3) eliminate all NCD-related mortality and disability. RESULTS: In all scenarios, the high-income group has the greatest potential gains in HALE[30-70], above the global average. For all specific causes, potential gains in HALE[30-70] decrease as income levels fall. Across these 3 scenarios, the potential gains in HALE[30-70] globally of reducing premature mortality for 4 major NCDs are 3.13 years, 4.53 years, and 7.32 years, respectively. In scenario A, all income groups have the greatest potential gains in HALE[30-70] from diabetes and chronic respiratory diseases. In scenarios B and C, the high-income group has the greatest potential gains in HALE[30-70] from cancer intervention, and the other income groups have the greatest potential gains in HALE[30-70] from cardiovascular diseases intervention. CONCLUSION: Reducing premature death and disability from 4 major NCDs at once and attaching equal importance to each lead to a sizable improvement in HALE[30-70].

Violent behavior and the network properties of psychopathological symptoms and real-life functioning in patients with schizophrenia.

Objective: To assess the interplay among psychopathological symptoms and real-life functioning, and to further detect their influence with violent behavior in patient with schizophrenia. Methods: A sample of 1,664 patients with post-violence assessments and their propensity score-matched controls without violence from a disease registration report system of community mental health service in Guangdong, China, were studied by network analysis. Ising-Model was used to estimate networks of psychopathological symptoms and real-life functioning. Then, we tested whether network properties indicated the patterns of interaction were different between cases and controls, and calculated centrality indices of each node to identify the central nodes. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to examine the difference of interaction patterns between pre-violence and post-violence assessments in violence cases. Results: Some nodes in the same domain were highly positive interrelations, while psychopathological symptoms were negatively related to real-life functioning in all networks. Many symptom-symptom connections and symptom-functioning connections were disconnected after the violence. The network density decreased from 23.53% to 12.42% without statistical significance (p = 0.338). The network structure, the global network strength, and the global clustering coefficient decreased significantly after the violence (p < 0.001, p = 0.019, and p = 0.045, respectively). Real-life functioning had a higher node strength. The strength of sleeping, lack of spontaneity and flow of conversation, and preoccupation were decreased in post-violence network of patients. Conclusion: The decreasing connectivity may indicate an increased risk of violence and early warning for detecting violence. Interventions and improving health state based on nodes with high strength might prevent violence in schizophrenia patients.

Key Social Determinants to Narrow the Gap between Health-adjusted Life Expectancy and Life Expectancy in Megacities.

Objective: Improvement in the quality of life is reflected in the narrowing of the gap between health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE) and life expectancy (LE). The effect of megacity expansion on narrowing the gap is rarely reported. This study aimed to disclose this potential relationship. Methods: Annual life tables were constructed from identified death records and population counts from multiple administrative sources in Guangzhou, China, from 2010 to 2020. Joinpoint regression was used to evaluate the temporal trend. Generalized principal component analysis and multilevel models were applied to examine the county-level association between the gap and social determinants. Results: Although LE and HALE in megacities are increasing steadily, their gap is widening. Socio-economic and health services are guaranteed to narrow this gap. Increasing personal wealth, a growing number of newborns and healthy immigrants, high urbanization, and healthy aging have helped in narrowing this gap. Conclusion: In megacities, parallel LE and HALE growth should be highly considered to narrow their gap. Multiple social determinants need to be integrated as a whole to formulate public health plans.

Measurement and projection of the burden of disease attributable to population aging in 188 countries, 1990-2050: A population-based study.

Background: Quantitative attribution of the burden of disease due to population aging is an important part of setting meaningful global health priorities. This study comprehensively examines the burden of disease attributable to population aging in 188 countries from 1990 to 2019, incorporates a comprehensive range of diseases, and projects the burden of disease due to population aging till 2050. Methods: We extracted data from 1990 to 2019 for 188 countries from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. We decomposed the change in disease burden into the contribution of the age structure of the population, population size, and age-specific disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates due to all other reasons. We used the Bayesian age-period-cohort model to evaluate the effects of age on temporal trends, and then to predict the possible disease burden in 2050. Results: At the global level, the change in total DALYs associated with age structure, population size, and all other reasons is 27.4%, 16.8%, and 89.4% (absolute level of DALYs attributable to age structure: -15.20 million, 9.32 million, and -49.58 million) of the absolute level of DALYs gap between 2019 and 1990. The absolute level of DALYs changes attributable to age structure for communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases were negative in all income groups from 1990 to 2019. For non-communicable diseases, the contribution was positive except in the low-income group. For injuries, the contribution was positive in lower-middle-income groups and low-income groups. By 2050, DALY rates decreased in all income groups, if compared to 2019. However, a total of 132 countries may see a gradual increase of all-cause DALYs attributable to population aging. Conclusions: The direction and intensity of the effects of population aging on the burden of disease vary by region and disease, with huge implications for global health in the future.

Higher maternal thyroid resistance indices were associated with increased neonatal thyroid-stimulating hormone- analyses based on the Huizhou mother-infant cohort.

Objectives: This study aimed to explore the relationship of maternal thyroid function and thyroid resistance parameters with neonatal thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH). Methods: This work was a longitudinal study. Singleton pregnant women without a history of thyroid disorders were recruited in their first prenatal visit from October 2018 to June 2020. Maternal thyroid markers including TSH, free triiodothyronine (FT3), free thyroxine (FT4), and neonatal TSH were tested in the clinical laboratory of the hospital by electrochemiluminescence immunoassay. Thyroid resistance indices including Thyroid Feedback Quantile-based Index (TFQI), TSH index (TSHI), and thyrotroph T4 resistance index (TT4RI) were estimated in accordance with maternal FT4 and TSH levels. Multivariable linear and logistic regression was applied to explore the associations of maternal thyroid indices with infantile TSH level. Results: A total of 3,210 mothers and 2,991 newborns with valid TSH data were included for analysis. Multivariable linear regression indicated that maternal thyroid variables were significantly and positively associated with neonatal TSH levels with standardized coefficients of 0.085 for TSH, 0.102 for FT3, 0.100 for FT4, 0.076 for TSHI, 0.087 for TFQI, and 0.089 for TT4RI (all P < 0.001). Compared with the lowest quartile, the highest quartile of TSHI [odds ratio (OR) = 1.590, 95% CI: 0.928-2.724; Ptrend = 0.025], TFQI (OR = 1.746, 95% CI: 1.005-3.034; Ptrend = 0.016), and TT4RI (OR = 1.730, 95% CI: 1.021-2.934; Ptrend = 0.030) were significantly associated with an increased risk of elevated neonatal TSH (>5 mIU/L) in a dose-response manner. Conclusion: The longitudinal data demonstrated that maternal thyroid resistance indices and thyroid hormones in the first half of gestation were positively associated with neonatal TSH levels. The findings offered an additionally practical recommendation to improve the current screening algorithms for congenital hypothyroidism.

A clinical model and nomogram for early prediction of gestational diabetes based on common maternal demographics and routine clinical parameters.

AIM: We aimed to develop a risk prediction model for gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) based on the common maternal demographics and routine clinical variables in Chinese population. METHODS: Individual information was collected from December 2018 to October 2019 by a pretested questionnaire on demographics, medical and family history, and lifestyle factors. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to establish a predictive model for GDM by variables in pre- and early pregnancy. The consistency and discriminative validity of the model were evaluated by Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit testing and ROC curve analysis. Internal validation was appraised by fivefold cross-validation. Clinical utility was assessed by decision curve analysis. RESULTS: Total 3263 pregnant women were included with 17.2% prevalence of GDM. The model equation was: LogitP = -11.432 + 0.065 × maternal age (years) + 0.061 × pre-pregnancy BMI (kg/m2 ) + 0.055 × weight gain in early pregnancy (kg) + 0.872 × history of GDM + 0.336 × first-degree family history of diabetes +0.213 × sex hormone usages during pre- or early pregnancy + 1.089 × fasting glucose (mmol/L) + 0.409 × triglycerides (mmol/L) + 0.082 × white blood cell count (109/L) + 0.669 × positive urinary glucose. Homer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit testing indicated a good consistency between predictive and actual data (p = 0.586). The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.720 (95% CI: 0.697 ~ 0.744). Cross-validation suggested a good internal validity of the model. A nomogram has been made to establish an easy to use scoring system for clinical practice. CONCLUSIONS: The predictive model of GDM exhibited well acceptable predictive ability, discriminative performance, and clinical utilities. The project was registered in clinicaltrial.gov.com with identifier of NCT03922087.

A Bayesian network model of new-onset diabetes in older Chinese: The Guangzhou biobank cohort study.

Background: Existing diabetes risk prediction models based on regression were limited in dealing with collinearity and complex interactions. Bayesian network (BN) model that considers interactions may provide additional information to predict risk and infer causation. Methods: BN model was constructed for new-onset diabetes using prospective data of 15,934 participants without diabetes at baseline [73% women; mean (standard deviation) age = 61.0 (6.9) years]. Participants were randomly assigned to a training (n = 12,748) set and a validation (n = 3,186) set. Model performances were assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results: During an average follow-up of 4.1 (interquartile range = 3.3-4.5) years, 1,302 (8.17%) participants developed diabetes. The constructed BN model showed the associations (direct, indirect, or no) among 24 risk factors, and only hypertension, impaired fasting glucose (IFG; fasting glucose of 5.6-6.9 mmol/L), and greater waist circumference (WC) were directly associated with new-onset diabetes. The risk prediction model showed that the post-test probability of developing diabetes in participants with hypertension, IFG, and greater WC was 27.5%, with AUC of 0.746 [95% confidence interval CI) = 0.732-0.760], sensitivity of 0.727 (95% CI = 0.703-0.752), and specificity of 0.660 (95% CI = 0.652-0.667). This prediction model appeared to perform better than a logistic regression model using the same three predictors (AUC = 0.734, 95% CI = 0.703-0.764, sensitivity = 0.604, and specificity = 0.745). Conclusions: We have first reported a BN model in predicting new-onset diabetes with the smallest number of factors among existing models in the literature. BN yielded a more comprehensive figure showing graphically the inter-relations for multiple factors with diabetes than existing regression models.

Changes in blood pressure and cardiovascular disease in middle-aged to older Chinese: the Guangzhou Biobank Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Most studies on the associations of blood pressure (BP) with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk were based on single or average BP levels. Knowledge on the association between BP trajectories and CVD in middle-aged individuals who are not on antihypertensive medication may inform the care of individuals in this group whose BPs are not controlled. METHODS: Eight thousand nine hundred and sixty-nine participants aged 50-70 years, without CVD at baseline and not taking antihypertensive medication throughout the study, were included. Four time-points data from the Guangzhou Biobank Cohort Study were used to identify BP trajectories using latent class mixed model. Cox regression was used to investigate the association of BP trajectories with fatal and nonfatal CVD till April 2021. RESULTS: Three SBP trajectories were identified: 'low-slow-increase' characterized by SBP from 110 to 125 mmHg (86.5%); 'low-increase' from 110 to 150 mmHg (8.1%) and 'moderate-increase' from 125 to 155 mmHg (5.4%). Compared with the low-slow-increase group, the moderate-increase had the highest risk of CVD (hazard ratio = 1.76, 95% confidence interval = 1.34-2.29), ischemic heart disease (1.77, 1.01-3.09), myocardial infarction (3.52, 1.58-7.85), all strokes (1.88, 1.37-2.60), ischemic stroke (1.65, 1.10-2.49), haemorrhagic stroke (3.98, 1.30-12.12) and CVD mortality (2.41, 1.55-3.76). Higher risks of CVD (1.27, 1.01-1.61) and ischemic stroke (1.49, 1.07-2.09) in the low-increase group were also found. CONCLUSION: Most people between 50 and 70 years of age and not taking antihypertensive medication maintained a slow increase SBP trajectory over a follow-up period of approximately 7 years. However, those whose SBPs increased from low and moderate levels were associated with higher CVD risks.

Increased Central and Peripheral Thyroid Resistance Indices During the First Half of Gestation Were Associated With Lowered Risk of Gestational Diabetes-Analyses Based on Huizhou Birth Cohort in South China.

Objectives: The study aimed to explore the relationship of thyroid function and resistance indices with subsequent risk of gestational diabetes (GDM). Design: This was a longitudinal study embedded in the Huizhou Birth Cohort. Methods: A total of 2,927 women of singleton pregnancy were recruited from January to October of 2019. Thyroid central resistance indices were evaluated by Thyroid Feedback Quartile-Based index (TFQI), Thyrotrophy T4 Resistance Index (TT4RI), and TSH Index (TSHI) based on plasma-free thyroxine (FT4) and thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) levels during the first half of pregnancy. Thyroid peripheral sensitivity was assessed by free triiodothyronine (FT3) to FT4 ratio (FT3/FT4), a proxy of deiodinase activity. GDM was diagnosed between 24 and 28 weeks of gestation by a standardized 75 g oral glucose tolerance test. Multivariable linear and logistic regression was applied to examine the associations of thyroid markers with GDM risk. Results: FT3 and FT3/FT4 were positively associated with both fasting and post-load glucose levels, while TSH, TSHI, TT4RI, and TFQI were negatively associated with 1 and 2 h post-load glucose levels. Compared with the lowest quartile, GDM risk in the highest quartile increased by 44% [odds ratio (OR) = 1.44; 95%CI, 1.08-1.92; ptrend = 0.027] for FT3 and 81% (OR = 1.81; 95%CI, 1.33-2.46; ptrend < 0.001) for FT3/FT4, while it lowered by 37% (OR = 0.63; 95%CI, 0.47-0.86; ptrend = 0.002] for TSHI, 28% for TT4RI (OR = 0.72; 95%CI, 0.54-0.97; ptrend = 0.06), and 37% for TFQI (OR = 0.63; 95%CI, 0.46-0.85; ptrend < 0.001). Conclusions: This longitudinal study indicated that higher FT3 and FT3/FT4 and lower central thyroid resistance indices were associated with increased risk of GDM.

Developing and validating a Chinese multimorbidity-weighted index for middle-aged and older community-dwelling individuals.

OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate an index to quantify the multimorbidity burden in Chinese middle-aged and older community-dwelling individuals. METHODS: We included 20,035 individuals aged 45 and older from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) and 19,297 individuals aged 65 and older from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS). Health outcomes of physical functioning (PF), basic and instrumental activities of daily living (ADL and IADL) and mortality were obtained. Based on self-reported disease status, we calculated five commonly used western multimorbidity indexes for CHARLS baseline participants. The one that predicted the health outcomes the best was selected and then modified through a linear mixed model using the repeated individual data in CHARLS. The performance of the modified index was internally and externally evaluated with CHARLS and CLHLS data. RESULTS: The multimorbidity-weighted index (MWI) performed the best among the five indexes. In the modified Chinese multimorbidity-weighted index (CMWI), the weights of the diseases varied greatly (range 0.2-5.1). The top three diseases with the highest impact were stroke, memory-related diseases and cancer, corresponding to weights of 5.1, 4.3 and 3.4, respectively. Compared with the MWI, the CMWI showed better model fits for PF and IADL with larger R2 and smaller Akaike information criterion, and comparable prediction performances for ADL, IADL and mortality (e.g. the same predictive accuracy of 0.80 for ADL disability). CONCLUSION: The CMWI is an adequate index to quantify the multimorbidity burden for Chinese middle-aged and older community-dwelling individuals. It can be directly computed via disease status examined in regular community health check-ups to facilitate health management.

Equity of geographical access to public health facilities in Nepal.

INTRODUCTION: Geographical accessibility is important against health equity, particularly for less developed countries as Nepal. It is important to identify the disparities in geographical accessibility to the three levels of public health facilities across Nepal, which has not been available. METHODS: Based on the up-to-date dataset of Nepal formal public health facilities in 2021, we measured the geographical accessibility by calculating the travel time to the nearest public health facility of three levels (ie, primary, secondary and tertiary) across Nepal at 1×1 km2 resolution under two travel modes: walking and motorised. Gini and Theil L index were used to assess the inequality. Potential locations of new facilities were identified for best improvement of geographical efficiency or equality. RESULTS: Both geographical accessibility and its equality were better under the motorised mode compared with the walking mode. If motorised transportation is available to everyone, the population coverage within 5 min to any public health facilities would be improved by 62.13%. The population-weighted average travel time was 17.91 min, 39.88 min and 69.23 min and the Gini coefficients 0.03, 0.18 and 0.42 to the nearest primary, secondary and tertiary facilities, respectively, under motorised mode. For primary facilities, low accessibility was found in the northern mountain belt; for secondary facilities, the accessibility decreased with increased distance from the district centres; and for tertiary facilities, low accessibility was found in most areas except the developed areas like zonal centres. The potential locations of new facilities differed for the three levels of facilities. Besides, the majority of inequalities of geographical accessibility were from within-province. CONCLUSION: The high-resolution geographical accessibility maps and the assessment of inequality provide valuable information for health resource allocation and health-related planning in Nepal.

Research capacity of global health institutions in China: a gap analysis focusing on their collaboration with other low-income and middle-income countries.

INTRODUCTION: This paper presented qualitative and quantitative data collected on the research capacity of global health institutions in China and aimed to provide a landscaping review of the development of global health as a new discipline in the largest emerging economy of the world. METHODS: Mixed methods were used and they included a bibliometric analysis, a standardised survey and indepth interviews with top officials of 11 selected global health research and educational institutions in mainland China. RESULTS: The bibliometric analysis revealed that each institution had its own focus areas, some with a balanced focus among chronic illness, infectious disease and health systems, while others only focused on one of these areas. Interviews of key staff from each institution showed common themes: recognition that the current research capacity in global health is relatively weak, optimism towards the future, as well as an emphasis on mutual beneficial networking with other countries. Specific obstacles raised and the solutions applied by each institution were listed and discussed. CONCLUSION: Global health institutions in China are going through a transition from learning and following established protocols to taking a more leading role in setting up China's own footprint in this area. Gaps still remain, both in comparison with international institutions, as well as between the leading Chinese institutions and those that have just started. More investment needs to be made, from both public and private domains, to improve the overall capacity as well as the mutual learning and communication within the academic community in China.

Model-based spatial-temporal mapping of opisthorchiasis in endemic countries of Southeast Asia.

Opisthorchiasis is an overlooked danger to Southeast Asia. High-resolution disease risk maps are critical but have not been available for Southeast Asia. Georeferenced disease data and potential influencing factor data were collected through a systematic review of literatures and open-access databases, respectively. Bayesian spatial-temporal joint models were developed to analyze both point- and area-level disease data, within a logit regression in combination of potential influencing factors and spatial-temporal random effects. The model-based risk mapping identified areas of low, moderate, and high prevalence across the study region. Even though the overall population-adjusted estimated prevalence presented a trend down, a total of 12.39 million (95% Bayesian credible intervals [BCI]: 10.10-15.06) people were estimated to be infected with O. viverrini in 2018 in four major endemic countries (i.e., Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam), highlighting the public health importance of the disease in the study region. The high-resolution risk maps provide valuable information for spatial targeting of opisthorchiasis control interventions.

Correction: Associations Between Affective States and Sexual and Health Status Among Men Who Have Sex With Men in China: Exploratory Study Using Social Media Data.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.2196/13201.].

Assessment of control strategies against Clonorchis sinensis infection based on a multi-group dynamic transmission model.

Clonorchiasis is one of the most important food-borne trematodiases affecting millions of people. Strategies were recommended by different organizations and control programmes were implemented but mostly in short-time periods. It's important to assess the long-term benefits and sustainability of possible control strategies on morbidity control of the disease. We developed a multi-group transmission model to describe the dynamics of C. sinensis transmission among different groups of people with different raw-fish-consumption behaviors, based on which, a full model with interventions was proposed and three common control measures (i.e., preventive chemotherapy, information, education, and communication (IEC) and environmental modification) and their possible combinations were considered. Under a typical setting of C. sinensis transmission, we simulated interventions according to different strategies and with a series of values of intervention parameters. We found that combinations of measures were much beneficial than those singly applied; higher coverages of measures had better effects; and strategies targeted on whole population performed better than that on at-risk population with raw-fish-consumption behaviors. The strategy recommended by the government of Guangdong Province, China shows good and sustainable effects, under which, the infection control (with human prevalence <5%) could be achieved within 7.84 years (95% CI: 5.78-12.16 years) in our study setting (with original observed prevalence 33.67%). Several sustainable strategies were provided, which could lead to infection control within 10 years. This study makes the effort to quantitatively assess the long-term effects of possible control strategies against C. sinensis infection under a typical transmission setting, with application of a multi-group dynamic transmission model. The proposed model is easily facilitated with other transmission settings and the simulation outputs provide useful information to support the decision-making of control strategies on clonorchiasis.

Associations Between Affective States and Sexual and Health Status Among Men Who Have Sex With Men in China: Exploratory Study Using Social Media Data.

BACKGROUND: Affective states, including sentiment and emotion, are critical determinants of health. However, few studies among men who have sex with men (MSM) have examined sentiment and emotion specifically using real-time social media technologies. Moreover, the explorations on their associations with sexual and health status among MSM are limited. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to understand and examine the associations of affective states with sexual behaviors and health status among MSM using public data from the Blued (Blued International Inc) app. METHODS: A total of 843,745 public postings of 377,610 MSM users located in Guangdong were saved from the Blued app by automatic screen capture. Positive affect, negative affect, sexual behaviors, and health status were measured using the Simplified Chinese Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count. Emotions, including joy, sadness, anger, fear, and disgust, were measured using the Weibo Basic Mood Lexicon. A positive sentiment score and a positive emotion score were also calculated. Univariate and multivariate linear regression models on the basis of a permutation test were used to assess the associations of affective states with sexual behaviors and health status. RESULTS: A total of 5871 active MSM users and their 477,374 postings were finally selected. Both positive affect and positive emotions (eg, joy) peaked between 7 AM and 9 AM. Negative affect and negative emotions (eg, sadness and disgust) peaked between 2 AM and 4 AM. During that time, 25.1% (97/387) of negative postings were related to health and 13.4% (52/387) of negative postings were related to seeking social support. A multivariate analysis showed that the MSM who were more likely to post sexual behaviors were more likely to express positive affect (beta=0.3107; P<.001) and positive emotions (joy: beta=0.027; P<.001), as well as negative emotions (sadness: beta=0.0443; P<.001 and disgust: beta=0.0256; P<.001). They also had a higher positive sentiment score (beta=0.2947; P<.001) and a higher positive emotion score (beta=0.1612; P<.001). The MSM who were more likely to post their health status were more likely to express negative affect (beta=0.8088; P<.001) and negative emotions, including sadness (beta=0.0705; P<.001), anger (beta=0.0058; P<.001), fear (beta=0.0052; P<.001), and disgust (beta=0.3065; P<.001), and less likely to express positive affect (beta=-0.0224; P=.02). In addition, they had a lower positive sentiment score (beta=-0.8306; P<.001) and a lower positive emotion score (beta=-0.3743; P<.001). CONCLUSIONS: The MSM social media community mainly expressed their positive affect in the early morning and negative affect after midnight. Positive affective states were associated with being sexually active, whereas negative affective states were associated with health problems, mostly about mental health. Our finding suggests the potential to deliver different health-related intervention strategies (eg, psychological counseling and safe sex promotion) on a social media app according to the affective states of MSM in real time.

Dynamic prediction of liver cirrhosis risk in chronic hepatitis B patients using longitudinal clinical data.

OBJECTIVES: In longitudinal studies, serum biomarkers are often measured longitudinally which is valuable to predict the risk of disease progression. Previous risk prediction models for liver cirrhosis restrict data to baseline or baseline and a single follow-up time point, which failed to incorporate the time-dependent marker information. The aim of this study is to develop risk model in patients with chronic hepatitis B for dynamic prediction of cirrhosis by incorporating longitudinal clinical data. METHODS: Data from the hospital-based retrospective cohort at the Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, from 2004 to 2016, were analyzed. Using the multilevel logistic regression model, the time-dependent marker information and individual characteristics were taken as input, and the risk of at different time as the output. RESULTS: At the end of follow-up, 8.8% of patients progressed to cirrhosis, the average estimate values of hepatitis B virus DNA and alanine aminotransferase demonstrated a downward trend, the aspartate aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase ratio showed a flat trend overall. The important predictors were as follows: age, oral antiviral treatment, hepatitis B virus DNA. This risk prediction model had an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve of 0.835 (95% confidence interval: 0.772-0.899) and 0.809 (95% confidence interval: 0.708-0.910) in the derivation and validation sets, respectively. CONCLUSION: Longitudinal prediction model can be used for dynamic prediction of disease progression and identify changing high-risk patients.

The relationship between psychosocial risk factors, burnout and quality of life among primary healthcare workers in rural Guangdong province: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Healthcare workers are often exposed to stressful working conditions at work which affect their quality of life. The study investigated the relationship between psychosocial risk factors, stress, burnout, and quality of life among primary healthcare workers in general medical practice in Qingyuan and Chaozhou cities in Guangdong province. METHOD: The cross-sectional study was conducted in 108 primary health facilities including 36 community health centers (CHCs) across two developing cities in Guangdong province. A total of 873 healthcare workers completed the questionnaires. Quality of life was evaluated using The World Health Organization Quality of Life Questionnaire (WHOQOL-BREF) and psychological risk factors were evaluated by the Copenhagen Psychosocial Questionnaire (COPSOQ). General quality of life and the quality of life domains were transformed into a score range from minimum 0 to 100 maximum. Higher scores indicated better quality of life and vice versa. Significant associations were verified using multiple regression analysis. RESULTS: Poor quality of life was observed in 74.6% of healthcare workers surveyed. General poor quality of life was significantly higher among workers who reported higher burnout (Beta = - 0.331, p < 0.001). In addition, workers with high levels of burnout, unmarried workers and female workers had a higher possibility of physical health. A greater risk of poor psychological health was observed among workers with high burnout, poor sense of community and those with lower educational levels. Workers who lacked social support, those with fewer possibilities for development had increased probability of poor quality of life in the social domain. Poor quality of life in the environmental domain was observed among workers who were dissatisfied with their jobs and workers with low salaries. CONCLUSIONS: Primary healthcare workers in developing cities in China have a highly demanding and strained working environment and poor quality of life. Reducing job stress and improving work conditions may ultimately improve the well-being of primary healthcare workers.